Elo Predicts

Elo ratings can tell a lot about the quality of a team, much more than a win/loss/draw ratio can. Teams that have lost a significant rating over the course of 2018 are not improving, and an argument could be made that they have taken steps backwards. Brisbane Brisbane finish 2018 with a net gain of 64 rating points. Brisbane are the only team in the bottom six to have a gain over the 2018 season. This is great news if you are a Brisbane supporter! A positive rating change shows that the team is improving. That being said, they finish the season with a rating of 1387, so still a lot of room for improvement. Their biggest gain was against Hawthorn in round 9. Their biggest loss was only 15 rating points, which was against North Melbourne in round 11. Fremantle Fremantle finished the season with a rating of 1312, and a loss of 34 rating points. Their rating got as high as 1416 in round 8, so their second part of the year hasn't been as good. Their biggest gain was 42 rating po

Another great round of footy, with all but one game going according to script this week. It should be a fantastic finals series! Despite what the pundits are saying, there is really only one stand out team: Richmond. Melbourne, Collingwood and Hawthorn have been thrown up as challengers, but Richmond's rating of 1739 at the end of the home and away season is 97 points above the second-ranked team, Melbourne believe it or not (rating of 1642)! Anyway, a finals preview will be up next week. Onto the results from this week: Essendon ✔ Geelong  ✔ Richmond  ✔ Collingwood  ✔ Adelaide  ✔ Sydney ❌ West Coast  ✔ Melbourne  ✔ North Melbourne   ✔ So, Elo finishes the 2018 Home and Away season with a 67.7% accuracy. While this probably won't win any tipping competitions, it is right up there with the good tipsters. Campbell Brown and Wayne Carey (as seen on Pick A Winner) have an accuracy of 70.2% and 68.7% respectively. As mentioned earlier, a full finals preview wil

The Elo ratings have correctly predicted 126 games so far this year, or 66.7%. This equates to an average of 6 correct tips each round. The round ahead Sydney v Hawthorn and Melbourne v GWS are the games of the round based on the predictions. Port Adelaide v Essendon could be a good game but there isn't anything riding on it, assuming all the other games go as predicted. Elo predictions Essendon 55.1% Geelong 90.6% Richmond 88.5% Collingwood 86.5% Adelaide 87.7% Sydney 57.0% West Coast 77.6% Melbourne 55.1% North Melbourne 74.6% Score predictions Port Adelaide 93.48 vs Essendon 95.46 Geelong 122.84 vs Gold Coast 77.74  Richmond 121.34 vs Western Bulldogs 73.68  Fremantle 76.66 vs Collingwood 114.52  Carlton 77.16 vs Adelaide 114.56  Sydney 94.24 vs Hawthorn 87.30  Brisbane 83.38 vs West Coast 106.58  Melbourne 93.86 vs GWS 89.18  St Kilda 85.24 vs North Melbourne 116.94 Po

As afl.com.au begins their series of end-of-season videos, this is the perfect opportunity to see how things went in terms of Elo ratings. Ratings always tell an interesting story, from the teams that should have performed better to those teams who were the underdogs at the start of the year but improve steadily over the year. Carlton Carlton started the year with a rating of 1342. At the time of writing this they are the second worst team (behind St Kilda) in terms of rating points lost. They currently sit on 1183, a difference of -159 rating points. Their biggest gain for the year was 39 rating points in round 19 vs Gold Coast. Their biggest rating point loss was in round 4 vs North Melbourne, a loss of 28 rating points. Watch the Wash Up on afl.com.au . Gold Coast Gold Coast had another poor year, but not as bad as others in terms of ratings. They lost a total of 88 rating points this year, starting with 1321 and at the time of writing this sitting on 1233. This means th

A great round! Another cracking round of footy this weekend, and another good round of predictions! Richmond Collingwood Geelong GWS Brisbane Hawthorn Western Bulldogs West Coast Adelaide 7 from 9 is a good return, and maintains the average nicely. Based on the predictions for the final round, the first week of the finals looks like this: 1st QF Richmond 68.7% Sydney 31.3% 1st EF Melbourne 48.8% Geelong 51.2% 2nd EF Hawthorn 45.6% GWS 54.4% 2nd QF West Coast 46.4% Collingwood 53.6% With exception of Richmond - who have a current rating of 1739 - the other games all look reasonably close. Winners and losers Over the last four rounds, Gold Coast has been the biggest loser. Despite having a massive upset against Sydney they have lost 55 rat

Close games on Sunday! Some very close games predicted for Sunday this round! The Adelaide v North Melbourne game is essentially a coin toss. Adelaide's rating is 1516 and North's is 1510. Both sides have been holding steady over the last four rounds too, with Adelaide losing only 8 rating points and North gaining 6 rating points since round 17. Adelaide probably has more of a home ground advantage though, but if both teams play to their full potential we should see a very close match. West Coast probably take the home ground advantage into their match too. Because the score prediction model relies on a random number, in close games the winner may be different to the Elo rating. In this case the matches have been simulated so the predicted winner by score matches the prediction winner by Elo rating. As you can see though, there isn't much in two of the close games on Sunday. Elo rating predictions Richmond 71.2% Collingwood 57.4% Geelong 83.2% GWS 5