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Showing posts from November, 2018

The weekend wrap

This weekend there was only 5 NBL games on, so plenty of time to make some big updates to the site! NBL The NBL season simulation received the same treatment as the A-League and AFL. The prediction model accurately predicted 4/5 games in round 6. The team with the biggest gain was Melbourne United with +15 rating points. The New Zealand Breakers had the biggest rating point loss (-18) this round. A-League I have changed the way the season is predicted so season simulations take into account change in Elo rating. This means a more accurate (hopefully) prediction of how the season will play out. The A-League ladder also now includes the weekly change in Elo rating. Elo predictions shown in the season view are still based on a team's current rating, and I'm planning to leave it that way. AFL Likewise the AFL season simulation has been updated to include changes in Elo rating when simulating the season. Similar to the A-League, the percentage chance shown in the season view are ba

The final whistle: A-league round 3

In a round without any draws, Elo predicted 5/5 in round 3. The big question is, can anyone catch Sydney (1661)? With a gain of 12 points this week they are 120 rating points ahead of 2nd-ranked Melbourne Victory (1541) and nearly 150 points ahead of 3rd-ranked Melbourne City (1516). The season simulation now has them a 100% chance to finish in the top 2, so something fairly catastrophic would have to happen to knock them out of the finals, even at this early stage of the season. Maybe too many draws? Home rating Home team Away Team Away rating Tip 1516 (-12) Melbourne City Sydney FC 1661 (+12) ✔ 1410 (-15) Wellington Phoenix Western Sydney Wanderers 1483 (+15) ✔ 1483 (-9) Newcastle Jets Melbourne Victory 1541 (+9) ✔ 1497 (+10) Perth Glory Brisbane Roar 1468 (-10)