Elo Predicts

AFL Some very average games this weekend in terms of skills, but some very close games also. There is no doubt that the 6-6-6 rule has had an impact on gameplay, perhaps bigger than anyone anticipated. Rating changes this week were quite small in comparison to the previous three rounds, which is an indication that team ratings across the league are a better representation of team strength. There are still only two teams with a rating of 1600 or more. If they lose to the Bulldogs (1457), Carlton's (1303) rating will drop under 1300 for the first time this season. A-League The top 6 is now set, with really only the lower positions that could change. Sydney FC (1628) are a 93% chance to finish in the top 2, while Perth Glory (1613) will get a week off. Both these teams play each other in the next round, which should be a fascinating game to watch.

AFL A better week this week, 5 correct. The expectation is that the model will correct itself, coming back to the average accuracy of around 68%. There has been a big shift in the ratings of a few teams. Let's start with the positive stories first! Brisbane leads the way with a net gain of +43, followed by Geelong (+33) and Fremantle (+29). Brisbane was predicted to miss the 8 at the start of the season, but now they are a small chance to make it. Geelong's rating tipped over 1600 for the first time in a while, and they are now ranked 1st by rating. West Coast (1603) is only just behind them but they have a net gain of only +2 this season. On the other side, the biggest story at the moment is Melbourne who has a net loss of -42 this season. This is second only behind North Melbourne (-44). The other big loser is Richmond (-32), who played one bad game and missed out on the Grand Final last year now find themselves slipping. Their current rating of 1579 is the 5th best in

AFL A very poor start to the season for the Elo model this year, which probably indicates there are some big shifts in the top and bottom teams. Coming off a season where the model was 72% accurate (and average of 70% accurate over the last seven years), initially it is hard to understand why it is performing so poorly this season. However, looking at the games in the first two rounds where the predicted winner had a 59% chance or less of winning might offer some explanation. There were 10 game in the first two rounds this season, compared with 8 last season. So the hope is that the model will be more accurate over the coming rounds. Work has started on a player-based prediction model, partly just for comparison purposes. Records for this week Biggest change: +/- 19 (Collingwood & Geelong, Richmond & Melbourne) Smallest change: +/- 2 (Port Adelaide, Carlton) A-League Perth Glory dropped a game that they were predicted to win, and the Wanderers pulled off a mass

An entertaining round Elo predicted only 3 games correctly this round, one of the worst performances in recent times. This is probably a good indication that there will be a few teams on the rise this year and a few teams dropping away. Both Brisbane (+23) and Fremantle (+29) had significant gains, while Adelaide (-14) and North Melbourne (-29) had big losses. Richmond (+3) is now the only team with a rating higher than 1600, but expect West Coast (-23) to bounce back this week. Speaking of West Coast, their game vs GWS (+16) this week is the pick of the round, with only 3 Elo rating points between them Elo predicts a drawn game.

A-League This week saw Melbourne Victory drop out of the predicted Grand Final match up, which is now between Perth Glory and Sydney FC. That being said, Perth and Sydney had rating changes of +12 and +11 respectively while Melbourne Victory had a change of +3 so there is still a bit to play out there. It does really depends which team faces which team in the finals. If Perth does finish on top (which they are now predicted to do so) and Melbourne finish in 4th, Melbourne would be predicted to progress to the Grand Final. Round 18 tips Newcastle Jets (51%) Sydney FC (81%) Western Sydney Wanderers (61%) Adelaide United (50.1%) Melbourne Victory (52%) BBL The Strikers are the only team still in contention for a finals spot. Unfortunately for them the Stars still have three games in had, all of which are winnable. Should the Stars beat Perth tonight or the Heat, Adelaide are out of finals contention. NBL Melbourne United are on a hot streak at the moment, picking up +26

A-League While the top 6 might be fairly set, there is still a bit to play out this season. The team to watch is Sydney FC. They look to be doing well, but the ratings tell a different story. They have a rating change of -58 this season, and their predicted chance of winning the Grand Final is dropping with every round. Just a few rounds ago they were over 50% chance to win it, but that has now dropped to 35%. The match against Melbourne City might tell a lot about where they are really placed this season. Round 17 tips Western Sydney v Newcastle Jets (57%) Central Coast v Melbourne Victory (84%) Adelaide United (67%) v Brisbane Roar Perth Glory (65%) v Wellington Phoenix Sydney FC (64%) v Melbourne City BBL Only a few games left in the BBL now, and the Stars a the only team with a real shot of making the top 4. The Strikers look like missing out after winning it last year. The Renegades have lost 13 rating points this season, which in the context of the BBL ratings is

A-League A couple of interesting things this week: Melbourne City has lost 15 rating points over the last seven days. While this doesn't affect their finals chances, every other team predicted to finish in the top 6 has gained over the last seven days with the exeption of Perth (-1). The Mariners are finally having some success, and have a net rating change of +18 in the last seven days. This has kept their rating above 1200; 1273 is the lowest rating historically. Next five games: Melbourne City Sydney FC Newcastle Jets Perth Glory Melbourne City BBL BBL Elo ratings are not tracking well, with an accuracy of 50%. There is a need for a system overhaul, although this is well below the average over time (around 65%). NBL With one game to go this round, the Breakers are only a 51% chance to beat Cairns, so this game could go either way. The only team who could possibly sneak into the top 4 seems to be Perth, as their predicted win % is 5% behind Brisbane. The 3

A-League Nothing unexpected this week, and the model correctly tipped 5/5 games. All rating changes were between 6 and 7 rating points, so not much movement on the end of season predictions. The top 6 looks to be fairly set now, and three teams have a >99% chance to finish top 6. Interestingly the current finals predictions see Melbourne Victory finishing third but then beating second placed Perth in the semi final, and progressing to the Grand Final. Although Sydney are still predicted to win the Grand Final, their rating has had a net change of -58 rating points. Perth have been the big improvers this year, with a net change of +109 followed by Wellington with a net change of +86. Upcoming matches of note: Melbourne City v Perth Glory, with Perth having a 53% chance to win BBL A very interesting situation is deleloping in the BBL where Perth are currently placed 8th but Elo is predicting there is an 88% chance they will finish in the top 4. This is mostly due to five h

A-League There haven't been many surprising results over the Christmas/New Year period. The thing that is really of note is that Sydney FC are 48 points clear of the team ranked second by Elo ratings - Melbourne Victory. Four teams now have a greater than 95% chance to finish in the top 6, and Wellington is looking strong for a 6th place finish. Of course, given Sydney's huge ratings difference it is little surprise that they are a 98% chance to play in the Grand Final. Perth's win over Sydney on the weekend meant their predicted chance of finishing top 2 jumped from 39% to 63%, and are now predicted to finish in 2nd place, ahead of  Melbourne Victory.  BBL At the time of writing this the Brisbane Heat are the only team with a positive rating gain in the last 7 days. The Heat have only an 8% chance to make the top 4, but a lot can change very quickly in BBL. The Perth Scorchers are still a very strong chance (86%) to make top 4, which is largely due to the number of