Elo Predicts

 AFL Melbourne on the rise Melbourne has a change of +53 rating points in the last 14 days. Granted their opposition hasn't been outstanding, playing the bottom two teams before their most recent match, but that is a big gain. Will Adelaide win a game? Adelaide has a change of -29 (worst in the league) in the last fortnight, and is down -122 from the end of last season (also worst in the league). For comparison, the second biggest change from the end of last year is Hawthorn (-43).  A-League Are Sydney FC slipping? With a change of -24 rating points over the last two weeks it might be a reasonable assumption to make. However, Sydney's rating of 1618 is well above any other team this season, with the next closest being Melbourne City on 1545. But, Sydney has only added 9 points to their end of season rating from the 2018-19 season. Western United have had a great first season Ok that probably is fairly obvious just based on their ladder position, but starting from a rating of 1...

AFL Some very average games this weekend in terms of skills, but some very close games also. There is no doubt that the 6-6-6 rule has had an impact on gameplay, perhaps bigger than anyone anticipated. Rating changes this week were quite small in comparison to the previous three rounds, which is an indication that team ratings across the league are a better representation of team strength. There are still only two teams with a rating of 1600 or more. If they lose to the Bulldogs (1457), Carlton's (1303) rating will drop under 1300 for the first time this season. A-League The top 6 is now set, with really only the lower positions that could change. Sydney FC (1628) are a 93% chance to finish in the top 2, while Perth Glory (1613) will get a week off. Both these teams play each other in the next round, which should be a fascinating game to watch.

AFL A better week this week, 5 correct. The expectation is that the model will correct itself, coming back to the average accuracy of around 68%. There has been a big shift in the ratings of a few teams. Let's start with the positive stories first! Brisbane leads the way with a net gain of +43, followed by Geelong (+33) and Fremantle (+29). Brisbane was predicted to miss the 8 at the start of the season, but now they are a small chance to make it. Geelong's rating tipped over 1600 for the first time in a while, and they are now ranked 1st by rating. West Coast (1603) is only just behind them but they have a net gain of only +2 this season. On the other side, the biggest story at the moment is Melbourne who has a net loss of -42 this season. This is second only behind North Melbourne (-44). The other big loser is Richmond (-32), who played one bad game and missed out on the Grand Final last year now find themselves slipping. Their current rating of 1579 is the 5th best in ...