AFL

2024 Season

Home & Away Matches

Results are usually updated within 12 hours of match completion.



Team Ratings and Ladder



 The season is simulated 500 times using the Monte Carlo method. Elo ratings run "hot", meaning they move up and down through each simulated season (including finals).

Finals

From the predicted ladder positions shown above and using the average Elo ratings at the end of each simulated season, this is the prediction of how the finals series will play out. This will be more accurate as more games are completed.




Model updates

  • November 2018: Elo ratings change throughout the simulated season 
  • December 2018: Finals predictions use average Elo rating over simulated seasons
  • April 2019: Display a tick when a team is a mathematical chance to make or miss the finals, or play any finals matches
  • October 2021: Elo ratings are now calculated from 1897
  • January 2022: Changed some parameters including k value and home ground advantage
  • April 2022: Ratings are adjusted pre-game to consider home ground advantage, travel, and fatigue