Before the bounce: round 22

Close games on Sunday!

Some very close games predicted for Sunday this round! The Adelaide v North Melbourne game is essentially a coin toss. Adelaide's rating is 1516 and North's is 1510. Both sides have been holding steady over the last four rounds too, with Adelaide losing only 8 rating points and North gaining 6 rating points since round 17. Adelaide probably has more of a home ground advantage though, but if both teams play to their full potential we should see a very close match. West Coast probably take the home ground advantage into their match too.

Because the score prediction model relies on a random number, in close games the winner may be different to the Elo rating. In this case the matches have been simulated so the predicted winner by score matches the prediction winner by Elo rating. As you can see though, there isn't much in two of the close games on Sunday.

Elo rating predictions

Richmond	71.2%
Collingwood	57.4%
Geelong	83.2%
GWS	52.8%
Brisbane	71.0%
Hawthorn	79.5%
Western Bulldogs	74.6%
West Coast	54.0%
Adelaide	50.9%

Score predictions

Richmond	96.48	Essendon	86.00
Collingwood	95.72	Port Adelaide	87.96
Geelong	114.10	Fremantle	75.98
GWS	95.80	Sydney	89.56
Gold Coast	84.18	Brisbane	106.92
St Kilda	75.86	Hawthorn	104.48
Carlton	85.04	Western Bulldogs	107.12
West Coast	92.80	Melbourne	89.04
Adelaide	95.18	North Melbourne	94.80