Before the bounce: 2018 Finals Series

There really should only be one team that everyone is talking about this year, and that is Richmond. Their rating is so much higher than any other team, they are a clear standout. That being said, what should happen and what does happen is very different. Some changes were made to the system over the bye weekend, and the accuracy is now 73.0% for the 2018 season. The major change is the amount of rating points gained or lost, which is approximately half what it used to be.

Finals week 1

Home	Rating	Away	Rating	Prediction
Richmond	1675	Hawthorn	1554	Richmond 66.7%
Melbourne	1594	Geelong	1606	Geelong 51.8%
Sydney	1589	GWS	1567	Sydney 53.1%
West Coast	1604	Collingwood	1574	West Coast 54.4%

The game to look forward to is Melbourne v Geelong. The Cats have gained 9 rating points in the last four weeks compared with Melbourne who have gained 24. This gain of 24 rating points is second only behind the Western Bulldogs (surprisingly) on 25. Tracking over four weeks does seem to give a good indication of if a team is hitting some form, or on the slide. Collingwood rank third (+19 rating points) and Hawthorn rank fourth (+17 ranking points).

Grand Final prediction

Based on the ratings of all the teams in the 8, the Grand Final is predicted to be Richmond v Geelong, with Richmond 59.7% chance to win. If Melbourne win the first final this will change significantly though.