The final whistle: A-Leage round 2

Another round with more draws than outright winners, and I'm starting to think that I need to work on predicting the chance of a draw too. The Poisson distribution seems to do a reasonable job of that, but needs some work. Currently for the purposes of this blog I am counting a draw as a correct tip, however predicting a draw as a third option would be better I think. Since the 2011-12 season, when finals could no longer be drawn games, Elo ratings have an incredible 78% accuracy in finals so maybe just wait until the finals?

Also worth noting, I heard one commentator say that Melbourne Victory were one of the favourites to win the Grand Final this season. To me it seems that Sydney is the clear standout at this stage of the season.

Home rating	Home team	Away Team	Away rating	Tip
1495 (0)	Adelaide United	Newcastle Jets	1492 (0)	✔
1391 (+4)	Central Coast Mariners	Melbourne City	1528 (-4)	✔
1649 (+8)	Sydney FC	Western Sydney Wanderers	1467 (-8)	✔
1478 (-2)	Brisbane Roar	Wellington Phoenix	1426 (+2)	✔
1532 (-12)	Melbourne Victory	Perth Glory	1487 (+12)	❌

Round 3 predictions

Some more close games in round 3. As the Perth v Newcastle match is in Perth that probably gives them a slight advantage.

Home	Away	Prediction	Chance
Melbourne City	Sydney FC	Sydney FC	66.8%
Wellington Phoenix	Western Sydney Wanderers	Western Sydney Wanderers	56.0%
Newcastle Jets	Melbourne Victory	Melbourne Victory	55.8%
Perth Glory	Brisbane Roar	Perth Glory	51.3%
Central Coast Mariners	Adelaide United	Adelaide United	64.5%