The final whistle: A-league round 3

In a round without any draws, Elo predicted 5/5 in round 3. The big question is, can anyone catch Sydney (1661)? With a gain of 12 points this week they are 120 rating points ahead of 2nd-ranked Melbourne Victory (1541) and nearly 150 points ahead of 3rd-ranked Melbourne City (1516). The season simulation now has them a 100% chance to finish in the top 2, so something fairly catastrophic would have to happen to knock them out of the finals, even at this early stage of the season. Maybe too many draws?

Home rating	Home team	Away Team	Away rating	Tip
1516 (-12)	Melbourne City	Sydney FC	1661 (+12)	✔
1410 (-15)	Wellington Phoenix	Western Sydney Wanderers	1483 (+15)	✔
1483 (-9)	Newcastle Jets	Melbourne Victory	1541 (+9)	✔
1497 (+10)	Perth Glory	Brisbane Roar	1468 (-10)	✔
1379 (-12)	Central Coast Mariners	Adelaide United	1507 (+12)	✔

Looking to next week, another couple of close games with teams only separated by a few rating points.

Home	Away	Prediction	Chance
Melbourne City	Wellington Phoenix	Melbourne City	64.8%
Western Sydney Wanderers	Brisbane Roar	Western Sydney Wanderers	52.1%
Newcastle Jets	Sydney FC	Sydney FC	73.6%
Adelaide United	Perth Glory	Adelaide United	51.4%
Melbourne Victory	Central Coast Mariners	Melbourne Victory	71.8%