The week in review (1-7 April)

AFL

A better week this week, 5 correct. The expectation is that the model will correct itself, coming back to the average accuracy of around 68%. There has been a big shift in the ratings of a few teams. Let's start with the positive stories first!

Brisbane leads the way with a net gain of +43, followed by Geelong (+33) and Fremantle (+29). Brisbane was predicted to miss the 8 at the start of the season, but now they are a small chance to make it. Geelong's rating tipped over 1600 for the first time in a while, and they are now ranked 1st by rating. West Coast (1603) is only just behind them but they have a net gain of only +2 this season.

On the other side, the biggest story at the moment is Melbourne who has a net loss of -42 this season. This is second only behind North Melbourne (-44). The other big loser is Richmond (-32), who played one bad game and missed out on the Grand Final last year now find themselves slipping. Their current rating of 1579 is the 5th best in the league.

A-League

4 correct this week, but the last few rounds are really just for positions within the top 6. The Brisbane Roar have been very disappointing this season, with a net change of -110 rating points. They were predicted to play finals but will miss out. Perth is the obvious good news story, with a net gain of +131. Sydney, despite still holding the best rating in the league (and holding it for quite some time) has had a net change of -11 this season, suggesting they are dropping off the pace a little but still holding strong. Wellington Phoenix are the other big improvers this season, with a net change of +80.

Perth locked their spot in the semis this week with a win over the Mariners. Sydney are not guaranteed to finish in second, and on paper, their run home is more difficult than Melbourne Victory who are currently in 3rd. However, both teams are predicted to win 1.5 more games than they have currently, so it might come down to the last round.