The week in review (25-31 March)

AFL

A very poor start to the season for the Elo model this year, which probably indicates there are some big shifts in the top and bottom teams. Coming off a season where the model was 72% accurate (and average of 70% accurate over the last seven years), initially it is hard to understand why it is performing so poorly this season. However, looking at the games in the first two rounds where the predicted winner had a 59% chance or less of winning might offer some explanation. There were 10 game in the first two rounds this season, compared with 8 last season. So the hope is that the model will be more accurate over the coming rounds. Work has started on a player-based prediction model, partly just for comparison purposes.

Records for this week

• Biggest change: +/- 19 (Collingwood & Geelong, Richmond & Melbourne)
• Smallest change: +/- 2 (Port Adelaide, Carlton)

A-League

Perth Glory dropped a game that they were predicted to win, and the Wanderers pulled off a massive upset against Melbourne City. The Jets have really blown their chance to play finals, and now are only a 2% chance to make it. The Wanderers also have a chance to make it, but less than 1%.

Records for this week

• Biggest change: +/- 22 (Western Sydney, Melbourne City)
• Smallest change: +/- 5 (Adelaide United, Central Coast Mariners)