The week in review (7-13 Jan)

A-League

Nothing unexpected this week, and the model correctly tipped 5/5 games. All rating changes were between 6 and 7 rating points, so not much movement on the end of season predictions. The top 6 looks to be fairly set now, and three teams have a >99% chance to finish top 6. Interestingly the current finals predictions see Melbourne Victory finishing third but then beating second placed Perth in the semi final, and progressing to the Grand Final.

Although Sydney are still predicted to win the Grand Final, their rating has had a net change of -58 rating points. Perth have been the big improvers this year, with a net change of +109 followed by Wellington with a net change of +86.

Upcoming matches of note:

• Melbourne City v Perth Glory, with Perth having a 53% chance to win

BBL

A very interesting situation is deleloping in the BBL where Perth are currently placed 8th but Elo is predicting there is an 88% chance they will finish in the top 4. This is mostly due to five home games Perth have yet to play. Still a long way to go in the season though (only halfway) so still much to play out. Sydney Thunder are the first team to hit >99% chance to play finals.

Upcoming games of note:

• The Renegades are predicted to beat the Sixers, the only away side predicted to win this week. 

NBL

The model is at only 52.6% accuracy at the moment, well down on the overall average of 65.1 and currently the least accurate season to date. This gives perhaps less weight to the end of season predictions. As with the A-League, the top 4 looks to be fairly well set. The only possible change may be Perth finishing 4th rather than Brisbane. The Bullets are predicted to win only one more game than Perth, so this isn't too unlikely.