Elo Predicts

A-League This week saw Melbourne Victory drop out of the predicted Grand Final match up, which is now between Perth Glory and Sydney FC. That being said, Perth and Sydney had rating changes of +12 and +11 respectively while Melbourne Victory had a change of +3 so there is still a bit to play out there. It does really depends which team faces which team in the finals. If Perth does finish on top (which they are now predicted to do so) and Melbourne finish in 4th, Melbourne would be predicted to progress to the Grand Final. Round 18 tips Newcastle Jets (51%) Sydney FC (81%) Western Sydney Wanderers (61%) Adelaide United (50.1%) Melbourne Victory (52%) BBL The Strikers are the only team still in contention for a finals spot. Unfortunately for them the Stars still have three games in had, all of which are winnable. Should the Stars beat Perth tonight or the Heat, Adelaide are out of finals contention. NBL Melbourne United are on a hot streak at the moment, picking up +26...

A-League While the top 6 might be fairly set, there is still a bit to play out this season. The team to watch is Sydney FC. They look to be doing well, but the ratings tell a different story. They have a rating change of -58 this season, and their predicted chance of winning the Grand Final is dropping with every round. Just a few rounds ago they were over 50% chance to win it, but that has now dropped to 35%. The match against Melbourne City might tell a lot about where they are really placed this season. Round 17 tips Western Sydney v Newcastle Jets (57%) Central Coast v Melbourne Victory (84%) Adelaide United (67%) v Brisbane Roar Perth Glory (65%) v Wellington Phoenix Sydney FC (64%) v Melbourne City BBL Only a few games left in the BBL now, and the Stars a the only team with a real shot of making the top 4. The Strikers look like missing out after winning it last year. The Renegades have lost 13 rating points this season, which in the context of the BBL ratings is ...

A-League A couple of interesting things this week: Melbourne City has lost 15 rating points over the last seven days. While this doesn't affect their finals chances, every other team predicted to finish in the top 6 has gained over the last seven days with the exeption of Perth (-1). The Mariners are finally having some success, and have a net rating change of +18 in the last seven days. This has kept their rating above 1200; 1273 is the lowest rating historically. Next five games: Melbourne City Sydney FC Newcastle Jets Perth Glory Melbourne City BBL BBL Elo ratings are not tracking well, with an accuracy of 50%. There is a need for a system overhaul, although this is well below the average over time (around 65%). NBL With one game to go this round, the Breakers are only a 51% chance to beat Cairns, so this game could go either way. The only team who could possibly sneak into the top 4 seems to be Perth, as their predicted win % is 5% behind Brisbane. The 3...

A-League Nothing unexpected this week, and the model correctly tipped 5/5 games. All rating changes were between 6 and 7 rating points, so not much movement on the end of season predictions. The top 6 looks to be fairly set now, and three teams have a >99% chance to finish top 6. Interestingly the current finals predictions see Melbourne Victory finishing third but then beating second placed Perth in the semi final, and progressing to the Grand Final. Although Sydney are still predicted to win the Grand Final, their rating has had a net change of -58 rating points. Perth have been the big improvers this year, with a net change of +109 followed by Wellington with a net change of +86. Upcoming matches of note: Melbourne City v Perth Glory, with Perth having a 53% chance to win BBL A very interesting situation is deleloping in the BBL where Perth are currently placed 8th but Elo is predicting there is an 88% chance they will finish in the top 4. This is mostly due to five h...

A-League There haven't been many surprising results over the Christmas/New Year period. The thing that is really of note is that Sydney FC are 48 points clear of the team ranked second by Elo ratings - Melbourne Victory. Four teams now have a greater than 95% chance to finish in the top 6, and Wellington is looking strong for a 6th place finish. Of course, given Sydney's huge ratings difference it is little surprise that they are a 98% chance to play in the Grand Final. Perth's win over Sydney on the weekend meant their predicted chance of finishing top 2 jumped from 39% to 63%, and are now predicted to finish in 2nd place, ahead of  Melbourne Victory.  BBL At the time of writing this the Brisbane Heat are the only team with a positive rating gain in the last 7 days. The Heat have only an 8% chance to make the top 4, but a lot can change very quickly in BBL. The Perth Scorchers are still a very strong chance (86%) to make top 4, which is largely due to the number of ...

This weekend there was only 5 NBL games on, so plenty of time to make some big updates to the site! NBL The NBL season simulation received the same treatment as the A-League and AFL. The prediction model accurately predicted 4/5 games in round 6. The team with the biggest gain was Melbourne United with +15 rating points. The New Zealand Breakers had the biggest rating point loss (-18) this round. A-League I have changed the way the season is predicted so season simulations take into account change in Elo rating. This means a more accurate (hopefully) prediction of how the season will play out. The A-League ladder also now includes the weekly change in Elo rating. Elo predictions shown in the season view are still based on a team's current rating, and I'm planning to leave it that way. AFL Likewise the AFL season simulation has been updated to include changes in Elo rating when simulating the season. Similar to the A-League, the percentage chance shown in the season view are ba...

Congratulations to the West Coast Eagles on their thrilling victory over Collingwood to close out the 2018 Season! Starting this Elo rating project has provided me with a new insight into team performance, and I hope the same for the readers of this blog. The rating system predicted 4 out of 9 finals, including correctly predicting the winner of the Grand Final. This is a lot lower than I would like, so there is room for improvement in the offseason. Like the BBL ratings I found that home ground advantage doesn't necessarily apply in the AFL, especially as West Coast were technically the home team (as they finished higher up the ladder) on Saturday but the game was played at Collingwood's home ground. Another change may be to move to an adjusted rating system similar to the BBL, where the rating is adjusted before the game to take into account the ground, rest days and other conditions. This would help I think in situations like the West Coast v Melbourne game where Melbourne...